Imagine for a second that each college football conference is at a poker table. The group of five programs shares a small stack of chips. The ACC and Big 12 have a slightly smaller stack each, and then there's the SEC and Big Ten, with at least 5x as many chips as the rest of the leagues combined. They've also stacked the deck to ensure all the face cards go to them.
That's the reality facing college football going forward. The SEC and Big Ten have all the money, and they hold all the cards. The rest of the leagues might not like it, but they also understand it. Terrified of the power two taking their ball and going home, the rest of the leagues agreed to a "memorandum of understanding", effectively granting the SEC and Big Ten complete control over the future format of the College Football Playoff.
The playoff expanded from four teams to 12 teams last season, and further expansion is widely expected to either 14 or, more likely, 16 teams.
The 12-team format was a two-year agreement, and there's a December 1st deadline quickly approaching to sort out the future of the playoff. With that deadline approaching, the SEC and Big Ten are currently at a stand-off with different ideas on the future format.
The SEC and Big Ten are staring each other down over the future of the College Football Playoff
The future of the College Football Playoff may come down to who blinks first. A few months ago, the SEC and Big Ten both seemed to favor more automatic bids for their respective conferences than everyone else. In a 16-team playoff format, that would include four bids each for the SEC and Big Ten, two each for the ACC and Big 12, one for the top-ranked G5 team, and then three at-large bids. A 14-team format would look the same, but with just one at-large bid.
It's a format still favored by the Big Ten, but many SEC coaches have promoted a different format, prompting league commissioner Greg Sankey to publicly change his stance.
The SEC, and the majority of the rest of the leagues, now favor a 5+11 format, granting five automatic bids (one for each power conference and one G5), and then 11 at-large bids given to the highest-ranked teams left available.
That's probably the most "fair" way to do it moving forward, but of course, the SEC wants some assurances that strength of schedule is going to be a factor. And the Big Ten wants assurances that the SEC is going to move to nine league games before agreeing to a 5+11 model.
If an agreement can't be made, Sankey seems content sticking with the 12-team format for now:
"The Big Ten has a different view," Sankey said at SEC Media Days. "That's fine. We have a 12-team playoff, five conference champions. That can stay if we can't agree."
"I think there's this notion that there has to be some magic moment, and something has to happen with expansion, and it has to be forced," Sankey said. "When you're given authority, you want to be responsible using that authority. I think both of us are prepared to do so..... We don't need unanimity, and ultimately, if not, there's a level of authority granted to the Big Ten and SEC together. But there's a lot to that. It's not you just show up and pound your fist and something happens. I hope that type of narrative can be reduced, but we'll keep talking."
Sankey's comments are the first indication that the inevitable expansion of the College Football Playoff may not be imminent.
The SEC and Big Ten are staring each other down, waiting for the other to blink. They may be waiting for quite some time.