NCAA Hockey Bracketology: Boston College Out, But By How Much?

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Apr 10, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Boston College Eagles forward Johnny Gaudreau (13) celebrates his goal with teammate forward Bill Arnold (24) against Union Dutchmen goalie Colin Stevens (30) and defenseman Jeff Taylor (2) during the first period in the semifinals of the Frozen Four college ice hockey tournament at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

There are three teams currently leading their conferences who are below the PairWise Doom Line™ — Robert Morris of Atlantic Hockey, Penn State of the Big Ten, and Quinnipiac of the ECAC. All of those are what in basketball bracketology one might call “bid stealers.”

Boston College is therefore five spots out of a bid at present. That’s more ground to make up than it sounds, considering the regular season is over two-thirds over, but the Eagles will have opportunities to make it up in playing better teams.

As for the more fortunate teams, knock the last three at-large teams above the Doom Line out of the tournament, and you get an S-curve looking like this:

NCAA Hockey Bracketology: The Field

(Asterisk represents current conference leader)

1. Minnesota State*
2. Nebraska-Omaha*
3. Bowling Green
4. North Dakota
5. Minnesota-Duluth
6. Miami-Ohio
7. Harvard
8. Boston University*
9. UMass-Lowell
10. Yale
11. Michigan Tech
12. Vermont
13. Denver
14. Quinnipiac*
15. Penn State*
16. Robert Morris*

And now we break them up into seeds:

1. Minnesota State, Nebraska-Omaha, Bowling Green, North Dakota
2. Minnesota-Duluth, Miami-Ohio, Harvard, BU
3. UMass-Lowell, Yale, Michigan Tech, Vermont
4. Denver, Quinnipiac, Penn State, Robert Morris

NCAA Hockey Bracketology: Probable Matchups

(adjusted to avoid same-conference regional semifinals)

Minnesota State vs. Robert Morris
Nebraska-Omaha vs. Penn State
Bowling Green vs. Denver
North Dakota vs. Quinnipiac
Minnesota-Duluth vs. Vermont
Miami-Ohio vs. Michigan Tech
Harvard vs. UMass-Lowell
Boston University vs. Yale

Hashing out the “where” seems like a futile exercise since Boston College is not one of those teams, but we could potentially find some room for them here.

That is, if they keep winning.

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