2014 Pinstripe Bowl Pick, Scenarios, and Bottom Line

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Nov 29, 2014; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions wide receiver Chris Godwin (12) runs with the ball during the second quarter against the Michigan State Spartans at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-USA Today Sports

2014 Pinstripe Bowl Pick: BC Worst-Case Scenario

Since this is a worst-case scenario, logically, the opposite of the best-case scenario should happen. Therefore, the epic battle of run game versus run defense flips the other way. Penn State shuts down the Eagles rushing attack in much the same way that Pittsburgh or, dare I say, Syracuse did.

Note that “shuts down” means for this team somewhere in the mid-100s in terms of rush yards. That, by the way, is still over Penn State’s season average of about 85 yards per game, but not outside the realm of reason. The better run games they faced exceeded their average and got about three yards a carry. BC might come in a bit below in the latter category.

This frustrating offensive day is compounded by the failure of the Eagles pass rush. Penn State’s offensive line holds us for Hackenberg, allowing him to just barely beat the BC blitz and take advantage of a much more average Eagles secondary. At times, they accomplish something that was a rarity during the regular season: touchdowns.

Considering that the Eagles would be in the 200-250 yard range of total offense, this would do them in against most other teams. It is Penn State and an anemic offense, so they would always tantalize us as though they have a chance, but a 7-point deficit will feel like 70.

In this case, the Eagles drop the game, 24-10, and let another bowl game slip away before they even get started.

Next: Bottom Line & Pick