Boston College at North Carolina: Bottom Line & Pick

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Who will win the football game between the Boston College Eagles and North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday? I don’t know, but I can guess.

Boston College Best-Case Scenario
The Eagles jump out to a quick, early lead and maintain good time of possession with Andre Williams, Myles Willis, and some lengthy drives in which the Tar Heels commit penalties and fail to get third-down stops (UNC does the last two of those quite a lot). Though the game isn’t a laugher by any stretch, Boston College gets and holds a somewhat comfortable lead over North Carolina, who can’t make the plays as they fall to 1-6 and the Eagles soar to a two-possession win and a 4-3 record, breaking a long road losing streak.

Boston College Worst-Case Scenario
The Eagles fail to match their intensity level from the Clemson game and run into a hungry, angry North Carolina team that is looking to hit someone — anyone — in the mouth. Boston College has its moments as Andre Williams is still able to put together a decent run performance, and the Tar Heels’ run game goes nowhere, but Bryn Renner and Eric Ebron burn the Eagles more than a few times as North Carolina ends their losing streak and wins by two scores.

Bottom Line
North Carolina isn’t losing games because they’re unlucky or anything like that. Based on the facts, they’re losing games because they take a lot of penalties, their defense is having a terrible season, they’re scoring 17 fewer points per game than last year, and their run game has vanished. The Tar Heels are underachieving, and this is the result.

I did not agree with the opening line at all, which was UNC -10. I’m not even certain what Las Vegas could point to in order to justify such a spread. Even now, at -7, that is very generous to a team that has infrequently played well this season. At the same time, Boston College is getting no credit whatsoever, probably only because they don’t trust the Eagles to win a road game.

The more I researched this game, compiled stats, and reviewed both bodies of work and the general look of both teams on the field, the more I became convinced that the Eagles would win outright. I may be wrong, but this is not a homer pick by any stretch. Boston College has been the better team so far and they don’t seem too intimidated on the road anymore, at least from what I can see. I expect a fair amount of scoring, but I can see Andre Williams having a solid day as the Eagles possess the ball and just get by for their first road win in two years.

Boston College at North Carolina: Pick
Score Estimate: Boston College 28, North Carolina 24