Boston College at North Carolina: BC Offense vs. UNC Defense

North Carolina’s defense has declined in nearly every measurable sense, and in most cases substantially. The Tar Heels had a good 2012 and their defense helped set up a strong campaign. Now, this is almost certainly the worst defense in the ACC through six games and the stats are brutal.

The Heels have faced Georgia Tech, which always makes one’s rush defense yardage spike, but here’s how North Carolina has done against all of their opponents in terms of rushing yards allowed, with their current rush offense FBS rank:

• South Carolina: 228 yards (19th)
• Middle Tennessee State: 159 yards (70th)
• Georgia Tech: 324 yards (5th)
• East Carolina: 227 yards (110th)
• Virginia Tech: 48 yards (106th)
• Miami: 234 yards (22nd)

UNC has played a few good rushing offenses, which perhaps provides them some cover, but the problem for them is that the 5th-leading rusher in America is on the team that’s going to Chapel Hill this weekend. It stands to reason that based upon the information gathered here alone, the Eagles have a good chance at running the ball effectively against North Carolina on Saturday.

The Tar Heels under Larry Fedora run an unusual 4-2-5 defense with some funky terminology and placements. Up front, North Carolina has a nose tackle, defensive end, defensive tackle, and a “bandit,” which is somewhere between a defensive end and a linebacker. There are only two linebackers — Will and Mike — as Sam has been eliminated in lieu of a “ram,” which is a quasi-defensive back which doubles as a third linebacker. The rest of the secondary is the way one would expect it to look with two corners and two safeties.

Fedora and company had great success with this last season, but this year, many things have gone wrong. Kareem Jackson on the defensive line is the most experienced defender with 34 career starts; cornerback Tre Boston has 33. Nevertheless, there is plenty of inexperience in their ranks: of the current eleven starters on the depth chart, five made their first career starts this season.

Meanwhile, Boston College’s offense is not blowing anyone away, but by the numbers, it has improved. The pass offense has declined as the run offense has been made top priority under Steve Addazio and Ryan Day’s new system. So far, the results haven’t been bad for the Eagles.

One thing working in Boston College’s favor is the turnover situation. Boston College has been excellent so far in holding onto the football and are on pace to turn it over exactly half as many times as they did last season (24). On the other side, North Carolina has been below-average in generating turnovers.

Final Evaluation

You name it, North Carolina’s defense has been bad at it this season. They can’t stop the run, they can’t stop teams on third down, and they can’t get themselves off the field until after the other guys score. Boston College, though far from the best offense in the ACC, has been at times a feisty offensive team through their first six games. Coming off of a full extra week of preparation (North Carolina got a few extra days for having played on Thursday), the Eagles should be ready to pound the rock and have a few drives extended by untimely UNC penalties.

This is a road environment, so some additional temperance is in order, but the North Carolina defensive performance has been so off-putting this year that they cannot be favored against an offensive unit that has actually accomplished a few things. Boston College slightly favored.