Virginia Tech at Boston College: Bottom Line & Pick

Bob Donnan-US PRESSWIRE

Alumni Stadium hosts its final game of the 2012 season tomorrow. Someone will come out of there a winner, but will it be the much-maligned home team as their seniors get a send-off?

How Virginia Tech Will Win
The Hokies take this game if their defense plays respectably well and Logan Thomas doesn’t add to his 14 interceptions. Their running game isn’t extraordinary by any means, but if they can get that going, they can follow the blueprint that most other teams have against BC: pound the football, extend drives, and tire out the BC defense to the point where their vulnerability is heightened. That would then set up the pass, which the Eagles are basically powerless to stop these days. The sad truth is that BC’s opponents haven’t even needed to play their best to beat the Eagles this year, so if Virginia Tech plays a largely mistake-free game, they will probably win.

How Boston College Will Win
The Eagles win if they, well, do a lot of things better than they have this season. It starts with Chase Rettig, who has to lead the offense out of its recent doldrums, because 17 points or thereabouts probably isn’t winning this game. It is unreasonable to expect the defense to take a big step forward in the 11th game of the season, but what a BC fan can hope for is that the Eagles can take advantage of Virginia Tech’s weakness with turnovers and get themselves off the field. Gaining turnovers is actually an area in which the Eagles have been alright. If BC gets opportunistic here, it would give them a real chance.

Bottom Line
It has not been a great year for Frank Beamer’s team, or Frank Beamer, but in three previous meetings, he has badly outcoached the Frank on the other sideline. Granted, Beamer had more talent then, but he now has a team that’s still playing for something. This is literally the worst Virginia Tech team in 20 years — but it’s BC’s worst in 20 years, too. This is not a major advantage for the Hokies, but with BC struggling to beat anybody, I can’t say I favor them.

Virginia Tech at Boston College: Game Analysis
• Score estimate: Virginia Tech 24, Boston College 17
• Possible but slightly more unlikely that VT covers spread (-10)
• Low probability of a high-scoring game

Additional Information
• Virginia Tech has won last four meetings against Boston College: 30-12, 48-14, 19-0, and 30-14
• BC’s last win over VT at Alumni Stadium was October 18, 2008 (28-23)
• A BC defeat would give the Eagles their first 9-loss season since 1989
• Two more BC defeats would give the Eagles their first 10-loss season since 1978