Boston College at Wake Forest: Bottom Line & Pick

Bob DeChiara-US PRESSWIRE

The upcoming game between the 2-6 Boston College Eagles and 4-4 Wake Forest Demon Deacons looks relatively even when the two teams are put side-by-side. This is a game Wake Forest would very much like to have to get them back on their way to a bowl game, whereas Boston College must win to make anything of their season. Forecasting the closer matchups like this is always more interesting than writing about the blowouts you can see coming in July (like FSU).

There will be no Twitter commentary from me during the game on Saturday, as I am being detained by a family function (which I lobbied desperately to have rescheduled), but a recap will follow on Saturday night.

How Boston College Will Win

Boston College can win this game if they follow more or less the same blueprint they had last week. They will need the defense to come through again against a lousy Wake Forest offense, while Chase Rettig and his receivers do just enough to win a relatively low-scoring game. Of course, it would not be wise to count on another fourth-quarter comeback, but if it plays out like the Maryland game, the Eagles will have a relatively good shot. Given that there is not much daylight between these two teams, there is no reason it can’t happen.

How Wake Forest Will Win

Wake Forest, like Boston College, can also find ways to win if it’s a close, low-scoring game. They’ve won a few this year, so it would not be anything new for them, but they’ll have to make more big plays. Wake’s surefire way of winning would be to find a way to finally get their offense going. Boston College’s defense had a decent week against Maryland, but other teams have shredded them. To win, the Deacs will have to be somewhat aggressive with Tanner Price, mixing in some Josh Harris. Plain, conservative play-calling would play into BC’s hands and give them the low-scoring game that the Eagles can win.

Boston College at Wake Forest: Bottom Line

Last week, I slightly favored Boston College because it was a fairly even matchup and BC was the home team. This week, it is a fairly even matchup and Wake Forest is the home team. Maybe, based on record alone, one could make the case that the Deacs are ever so slightly the better team, but based on full body of work, that can’t be said of the Eagles. When all is said and done, I rate this game as a toss-up, and if I apply the same logic as last week, which ended up being correct, then I have to give the tie to the home team. Admittedly this pick is offered with a moderate amount of uncertainty.

Boston College at Wake Forest: Game Outlook
• STG Score Estimate: Wake Forest 23, Boston College 20 (or WF by 3)
• Slightly less than 50-50 chance WF covers spread (-3.5)
• Low probability that both teams score over 30
• The “under” (52) is slightly more likely

Additional Information
• Wake Forest won the last meeting, 27-19, at BC in 2011
• Boston College won the last meeting at WF, 23-13 in 2010
• BC is 5-2 against Wake Forest since joining the ACC in 2005
• Second-straight year for BC to start 2-6
• BC has not won consecutive games since 2010