Boston College at Georgia Tech: Bottom Line & Pick

Melina Vastola-US PRESSWIRE

This could either be the week that Boston College decides they’re not going to take this anymore, or it could be their fifth-consecutive loss, which puts them on the brink of clinching a losing season. Which will it be?

How Boston College Will Win

Boston College will win if they can make this game a slugfest. We’re beyond the point of counting on the defense to do anything, so BC has to take advantage of the fact that Georgia Tech’s defense itself isn’t great, and they just fired their coordinator. To do this, Chase Rettig will have to run up some completion totals and put the ball in the end zone. With the 113th rush offense, it has become clear that that’s the only way the football will get there.

The Eagles defense must be mentioned, however. They absolutely have to get themselves off the field, unlike what they’ve been doing all season. If they make BC have to score 45+, then they won’t win.

How Georgia Tech Will Win

The Yellow Jackets will win if Boston College’s defense performs at the same level as in the first half of the season — which is to say, badly. Georgia Tech’s offensive stats are good for the most part, though they are a triple-option, run-forever sort of team. Give them credit, though, because they do run the football very well. If the Eagles run defense again doesn’t show, then this could be another long and painful Saturday afternoon for BC.

Bottom Line

This game looks to me like it will be Army on steroids. The Yellow Jackets run the same type of offense as the Black Knights, with the key difference being that GT has better players. Make no mistake: if Army can shred this defense to ribbons, then so can Georgia Tech. Pay no attention to their record, as that doesn’t tell the whole story. This is a better matchup for the Eagles than Florida State (which isn’t saying much) based on the fact that GT’s defense is sub-par, but their offense is probably going to be too much for a damaged BC defense to handle.

STG Outlook: Boston College at Georgia Tech
• Score estimate: Georgia Tech 45, Boston College 24 (GT by 21)
• The over (62 total points) is a likely outcome
• Georgia Tech covering the spread (-14) is quite possible
• Low probability of a low-scoring game
• High probability that at least one team scores 30

Additional Notes
• Boston College is 0-3 on the road this season
• Georgia Tech is 2-2 at home in 2012
• This is BC’s first meeting with Georgia Tech since 2008 (GT 19-16)