Rethinking the 2012 BC Football Outlook

Greg M. Cooper-US PRESSWIRE

In August, just before the preview series for the Miami game began, this site ran through its best and worst-case scenarios. To save you all the trouble, this was the worst-case scenario:

"BC’s early injuries take a toll on them and Miami gets its revenge for the 2011 season finale by cruising by the Eagles. Then, in an ominous sign, the Maine Black Bears play the Eagles to within one or two scores like they did Pitt last season. The Eagles are at a shaky 1-1 heading out to Northwestern, where Kain Colter beats them again and sends them into the bye at 1-2.Boston College comes out of the bye fired up, but Clemson remembers what they did to BC last year at home and does it again in Boston. Next, in a shocking twist, the Eagles manage to botch a close Army game late at Michie Stadium, becoming the Black Knights’ annual BCS upset victim. Nationally-ranked Florida State then rubs salt in the wound with a big win over the Eagles, sinking BC to 1-5.BC figures out a way to beat Maryland, but lose to Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Notre Dame, arranged from closest game to biggest blowout. After losing to ND, the Eagles would be a pathetic 2-8 and the new athletic director would be buying Maalox in bulk. To cap off BC’s most disastrous season in decades, they close with blowout losses to Virginia Tech and NC State. 2 wins, 10 losses"

It’s not a perfect match, but Boston College football is tracking awfully close to that worst-case outcome, especially after they “manage[d] to botch a close Army game late at Michie Stadium.”

BC is five games into the 2012 season; next week, the year will be half-over. The Eagles have not played a good game yet. With so many fans, players, and player families wondering about Boston College’s bowl status, I have to ask in all seriousness: Where are BC’s wins going to come from this year?

We’ve heard a lot about “winnable games” on the schedule recently, but there’s one problem: BC hasn’t actually won any of them yet, except for Maine, which almost doesn’t count. It’s great that there are still “winnable games” on the schedule, but the Eagles have to, you know, win some of them.

Heading into this game with Florida State next week, where the point spread will probably be one of the largest against BC that any of us can remember, it’s time we take sober stock of what this season will yield. Even if the Eagles had beaten Army on Saturday, the Florida State game still looked like an exercise in futility, but now, BC will probably leave Tallahassee at 1-5, even as the Seminoles fell last night. That means the Eagles would have to go no worse than 5-1 down the stretch just to go .500 and barely qualify for a bowl.

You have to ask yourself, realistically, if you see that happening.

Several of the teams in the second half, including Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, appear to be down. That being said, it is hard to pencil BC in for five more wins when they had some trouble winning one. This was an uphill battle before Saturday at West Point, but is now almost in miracle territory.

Some are probably thinking of the 2010 season, where BC started 2-5 and closed 5-0. There were two reasons why that happened: (1) Boston College’s schedule got much easier towards the end of the year; even Clemson was a lousy 6-6 that season, and (2) the Eagles had a very good defense, one that was probably in the top 15 in FBS when the dust settled. In 2012, the schedule isn’t going to get appreciably easier, and this defense is the complete opposite of what BC had two years ago. A defense that allows over 500 yards per game on a consistent basis will make it difficult to string together two wins, let alone three or four. Those elements working in BC’s favor then are not working in their favor now.

It’s extremely difficult not to feel bad for the players, especially the seniors. We all want them to go out as winners but it’s not looking too good.

Can any of us put a final number on what we think the record will be? We could, and I’ve had a few in mind, but we’ll see what happens. Unfortunately, one thing most BC fans would probably now agree upon is that it won’t be 6-6 or better.