Maine at Boston College: Bottom Line and Pick

Boston College hosts Maine on Saturday afternoon, in a game that will almost certainly be easier than the first contest in which the Eagles played.

There’s no need to prolong the suspense any further, not that there is any suspense since it’s been clear all along where Soaring to Glory and the rest of the BC blogosphere stands on this game: I’m picking BC to beat Maine. Not exactly going out on a limb, but that’s that.

Where the disagreement lies around here is in the breadth of the victory. It’s great that there’s more confidence out there from BC fans after the offense kick-started itself back to life after being comatose for several years. Yet, one immutable truth about football is that one cannot take stats from one week and project them onto succeeding games, adjusting each time for the quality of the opponent. That’s especially true to us because we BC fans know from just last season that it can’t be done. For example, BC went from 479 yards of offense against a Big Ten team one week to 141 against a C-USA team the next. That’s why nobody can read too much into an individual game and come to broad, sweeping conclusions about the rest of the season based upon that, especially the first game.

I have to disagree with at least a few fans who are using last week’s offensive performance to come up with an eight-touchdown blowout on Saturday. Anything can happen in these FCS games, even a loss, but my gut feeling is that this is not going to be a 62-10 public shaming. Something in the ballpark of 41-17 is probably closer to reality, at least as I see it. (Please, read nothing into to the stat provided by BC that the Eagles have outscored Maine 120-0 in the last three meetings, because it’s a little misleading — the presidents during the previous three BC/Maine games were Herbert Hoover, LBJ, and Bush 43, so it’s not like those all happened recently.) I don’t expect BC to pitch a shutout, nor do I expect them to obliterate Maine like the Pokes did to Savannah State last week. I’d be thrilled if BC won by 50-something points, but that’s probably asking for too much.

The Miami game and what BC accomplished there has nothing to do with this contest against Maine. This is a different game, and there are always going to be variations and fluctuations from one to the next. That’s all in the past, and the Eagles have to focus on the present and win.