Does BC Basketball Have a Shot at Providence?

Boston College basketball is taking their show on the road once again.  Tonight, they’ll face former Skinner assistant Ed Cooley and his Providence Friars, who have gotten off to a 7-2 start this season. Providence is currently a 13-point favorite for tonight’s game.

We’ve already been through BC’s issues and have broken down why they’re 2-6, so the question is, does BC go into this game with any realistic chance of winning?

Let’s compare the two teams statistically over the first eight or nine games of their respective seasons:

PROVIDENCE

Points/g58.3 (317th)72.4 (103rd)Rebounds/g30.8 (320th)38.7 (69th)Assists/g10.3 (309th)13.3 (139th)FG percentage38.3% (319th)46.2% (81st)Pts. allowed/g71.0 (263rd)67.3 (181st)FG pct. allowed 44.9% (258th)40.0% (90th)

Oof. That doesn’t look good.

As of now, the Eagles haven’t given us any indication that they will be able to win this game. That doesn’t mean they can’t, but we’re at the point where we’ll take a well-played loss.  There are certain areas which fans must watch for improvement:

• Shooting. BC is one of the worst shooting teams in the country, and in their last two games, it got significantly worse from the first half to the second. For what it’s worth, the Eagles had second-half leads in both games but lost.

There is no one reason why the Eagles are shooting badly; some of the better ones are wild misses on open looks, not finishing layups, and running the offense too long and having to force up bad shots before the shot clock violation.

• Defense. The stats may say that BC’s offensive ranks are worse, but to me, this part of BC’s game is just as bad as the shooting. They’ve had spurts of playing good defense, but they allow too many teams to shoot the lights out; this, of course, is facilitated by many open looks and giving up offensive rebounds (more on those in a moment).

• Rebounding. This young team is soft on the boards; there’s no other way to say it. Long-term, they need to hit the bench press and put on some muscle, because they get pushed around. Short-term, they need to get more aggressive, recognize there they must be on the court, and become ballhawks.

Allowing the other team to get offensive rebounds has been a killer for BC so far this season. These are the raw numbers: Boston College’s opponents have gained 87 offensive rebounds this year, which averages out to 10.875 per game. For purposes of comparison, BC has gained 56 (7 per game). That’s a lot of second-chance points BC is giving up, and is a big part of why they lose games.

• Closing out games. BC gives up an average of almost 39 points in second halves this season, while averaging only about 30 themselves. BC let their last two games get away late and need to learn how to finish.