2011-2012 Boston College Men’s Basketball Team Preview

Prediction and conclusion

I’ve been asked on several occasions by friends and BC fans how I think the team will do this year. The bottom line is that the Eagles are probably going to lose more games than they win, but that this also should be a legitimately fun team to watch (outside of the turnovers and defensive lapses we know are coming). Coach Donahue has brought in some good talent who fit his system, and though you can’t expect them to immediately be All-ACC players, they’re going to play an exciting brand of basketball.

From the way people are talking about this team, though, you’d think they were on their way to losing 30 games and will rank amongst the worst ACC teams of all-time, if not BE the worst. Here’s an example:

"Donahue has added a number of promising players who very well could be the foundation for a competitive team at Boston College. But that’s not likely to happen this season. In fact, it would be a major accomplishment if the Eagles could match what Wake Forest did a year ago — 8-24 overall and 1-15 in the ACC. And keep in mind that the 2011 Deacs returned more experience and had a higher rated recruiting class than the 2012 Eagles."

This is what I’m talking about — the expectation of “I’ve never heard of any of these guys, so they’re going to be really bad” and “they weren’t all the top-line recruits so clearly they’re going to suck.” They’re entitled to their opinions, however wrong I think they’ll end up being. Just because recruits are highly-touted doesn’t mean they’ll end up good, and likewise, just because recruits get no buzz at all (like Jared Dudley) doesn’t mean they’re going to suck. Finally, just because a player is young doesn’t mean he is incapable of playing good basketball at this level.

I honestly believe that program outsiders are overreacting a little because Wake Forest, with a worse coach, mind you, completely cratered last season, and because we’re BC (in other words, a team that isn’t raking in big-time recruits at every turn and is a comparatively bad sports school), we’re just automatically going to be worse than they were. I understand that there is a lot of turnover, more than most schools will ever see from one year to the next, but there is talent there to be harnessed. I have faith in Steve Donahue that he will do it, and the sooner, the better.

I will gladly put whatever paltry credibility I have as a blogger on the line here: Boston College will win no fewer than 10 games overall, and no fewer than 2 games in the ACC. Boston College this year will not only match Wake Forest’s win total from last season, but surpass it. This is the kind of statement that can easily be held against me in March if I’m wrong (and if it is, so be it), but I have a certain confidence in this team that I think a lot of outside observers and non-BC fans lack.

You folks know, perhaps too well during football season, that I try to be objective and non-homerish. I am a huge BC basketball fan who became enthralled with the team back in 2004 when I was a freshman, so clearly I have biases, but I try not to let them show. With that said, I honestly do not believe this is a 5-win team like the “experts” seem to think we are. Maybe it’s because I’ve spent months and years following the progress of these incoming recruits and have had more time to get acquainted with their scouting reports, and get acquainted with Steve Donahue’s good coaching style. Whatever the case may be, I’m not going crazy and predicting anything major, and I’m not predicting a winning record or even a .500 record, but I am (adamantly) suggesting that BC will be better than the conventional wisdom expects, which is a catastrophically-bad 25 to 30-loss season. The non-conference schedule is not challenging, even for a fully restocked ACC team, which should give the Eagles some opportunities for wins.

Remember, of course, that this team is young and they’re going to make mistakes. They may pull off a few nice wins, especially down the stretch as they become a more cohesive team unit, but they’re also going to take their share of lumps and frustrate us (and themselves) as well. It’s all part of the learning process. Enjoy the good times they bring to us as fans and keep your eyes out for the positives.

Again, I can’t lie and tell you this is going to be a great season in terms of wins and losses. It probably isn’t, and we’re likely going to be somewhere at or near the bottom of the ACC. The players are generally very raw and they’re probably not ready to compete with the better teams in this conference, but they will be eventually, and who knows, perhaps we’ll be pleasantly surprised. That’s what happens when you have a near-universal roster turnover, but I promise you, this group will be good in the years to come, and before the season ends, I am very confident that you will get at least a few glimmers of hope that it will happen.

Aside from coaching them up, as long as Donahue has these guys believing that they can do big things, now and in the future, it may go a long way.