Eagles swept by Wake; ACC Tournament math bleak

Three straight losses in Winston-Salem this weekend may have hammered the final nails into the coffin for the BC baseball team. On Friday, BC fell 2-1 (10 innings); on Saturday, the Eagles lost 15-5; on Sunday, Wake’s senior day, the Deacs won 4-3. This was the first time Wake Forest had swept anyone this year. With these losses, Boston College is 16-29 (7-19) with only three conference games remaining.

The current ACC Tournament seedings are as follows:

1. Virginia (20-4, 1st Coastal)
2. Florida State (16-8, 1st Atlantic)
3. Georgia Tech 18-6, 2nd Coastal)
4. Miami (16-7, 3rd Coastal)
5. North Carolina (16-8, 4th Coastal)
6. Clemson (13-11, 2nd Atlantic)
7. NC State (11-13, 3rd Atlantic)
8. Wake Forest (10-14, 4th Atlantic)
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9. Virginia Tech (9-15, 5th Coastal)
10. Boston College (7-19, 5th Atlantic)
11. Duke (5-19, 6th Coastal)
12. Maryland (5-22, 6th Atlantic)

The Eagles have only three games remaining in their conference season: a home series against NC State. Both Wake Forest and Virginia Tech have six conference games to go. The Eagles have technically not been eliminated, but the only way they have of qualifying would be:

(a) to sweep NC State,
(b) Wake Forest loses all six of their remaining ACC games,
AND (c) Virginia Tech loses at least five of their remaining six games.

(This is, at least, what a very quick breakdown of the numbers reveals — if my math is in any way flawed, do let me know.) In fact, I took to another fast calculation of odds, and they’re not so good. Without going into a math lecture, the chances of an outcome being repeated three times AND an outcome being repeated six times AND an outcome being repeated five of six times puts us in less-than-1% territory. To put it in more comprehensible terms, you have significantly better odds of walking into 7-Eleven in Cleveland Circle (about half-way between Cityside and Roggie’s, of course) and winning money on a scratch-off lottery ticket than BC does of making the ACC Tournament this year. I think, therefore, it’s pretty safe to say that the season has all but come to an end for Eagles baseball.

After finals week, the Eagles will host LeMoyne in a non-conference series.