Reggie Jackson staying or going: What’s the difference?

The deadline for announcing a withdrawal from the NBA Draft is coming up within the next few days, and in that time, we will learn the final decision from (former?) Boston College star Reggie Jackson. I’ve heard reports that Jackson will stay in the draft and I’ve also heard that things aren’t going optimally, so he might return to BC. I don’t pretend to know what’s true and what isn’t; we’ll learn in a few days.

What this article will assess is the difference between HAVING Reggie Jackson in 2011-2012 and NOT HAVING Reggie Jackson next season. First, let’s look at the Eagles’ roster without him, assuming no late recruits or walk-ons:

(SR) Peter Rehnquist
(JR) Matt Humphrey
(SO) Danny Rubin
(SO) Gabe Moton
(FR) Ryan Anderson
(FR) Lonnie Jackson
(FR) Kyle Caudill
(FR) Dennis Clifford
(FR) Eddie Odio
(FR) Jordan Daniels

This is the Eagles’ team as presently constituted. As you can see, the breakdown by class is as follows:

Seniors: 10%
Juniors: 10%

[Upperclassmen: 20%]

Sophomores: 20%
Freshmen: 60%

[Underclassmen: 80%]

So yeah, we’re going to be heavy on freshmen, and as I’ve said in previous articles, I feel that some of these new guys are going to become solid players. It’s a big stretch, however, to assume they’ll be at the level of passable ACC players by next season.

This roster above indicates a total reboot of Boston College basketball. With the exception of walk-on Peter Rehnquist, a holdover from Al Skinner’s final season at BC, every last name on this list of players is a Donahue guy. It’s odd to see a college coach in only his second year with “his players” making up almost the entire roster, but that’s our situation without Reggie Jackson.

Now, the question remains: how good will they be? Not very, I’ll tell you that much. I don’t think we’re heading for 15 losses in the conference’s regular season like Wake Forest, but I do think this bunch will lose more than 10 ACC contests. We will not sniff the NCAA Tournament next season, and if BC miraculously comes even within a whisper of bubble contention, Steve Donahue should be the ACC Coach of the Year. Without seeing the complete schedule, it’s difficult to put hard estimates on win totals, but sub-.500 overall, probably near 20 losses, and perhaps a broad range of 2 to 5 ACC wins.

How about the Eagles’ composition with Reggie?

(SR) Reggie Jackson
(SR) Peter Rehnquist
(JR) Matt Humphrey
(SO) Danny Rubin
(SO) Gabe Moton
(FR) Ryan Anderson
(FR) Lonnie Jackson
(FR) Kyle Caudill
(FR) Dennis Clifford
(FR) Eddie Odio
(FR) Jordan Daniels

Seniors: 18%
Juniors: 9%

[Upperclassmen: 27%]

Sophomores: 18%
Freshmen: 55%

[Underclassmen: 73%]

Looking at the roster like this, you can see that there isn’t going to be a major shift if Reggie Jackson returns. The roster will still be over half freshmen, with the only difference being a talented anchor at the top of the team.

When thinking about this, I was wondering if we had any recent Boston College basketball teams which resembled the one in this example. The closest one we have, and admittedly it isn’t perfect, is the 2007-2008 season. In it, Tyrese Rice (then a junior) was by far the best player we had after Jared Dudley and Sean Marshall left. Biko Paris, Corey Raji, Josh Southern, and Rakim Sanders were all freshmen, while Joe Trapani was sitting out the season. The two seniors were John Oates and Tyrelle Blair, neither of whom was the player Tyrese Rice is. That team had its big-name player in Tyrese, and this one would have Reggie Jackson.

’07-’08, my senior year at BC, gave us a season that was essentially the star player (Rice) and his underclassmen ensemble. The results left much to be desired, as they finished sub-.500 overall and were a dismal 4-12 in the ACC. What’s somewhat scary is that the 2007-2008 Eagles weren’t as freshman-heavy as this team. They too had two seniors and one junior, but with four sophomores (not including Trapani) and five freshmen. It might not be unrealistic to think, based upon some of the parallels we’ve seen, that the upcoming BC team (with Reggie Jackson) would experience similar results to the 2007-2008 team.

The bottom line, I believe, is this: having Reggie Jackson on the ’11-’12 Eagles wouldn’t hurt, and it would give fans one last season to enjoy his play. He would doubtlessly be a good leader by example for our young players, and I’d be pleased to see that happen. When it comes to what happens on the court, however, him returning will only tweak BC’s downward trajectory, not reverse it. Reggie may be able to will the Eagles to a few more wins, but he is not the difference between BC being saved and going down the tubes. It’s sad when I can say that about such a good player as him, but the amount of turnover is too great for one guy to turn it all around. This BC team still finishes sub-.500 overall, but is closer to even than the sans-Reggie club, and likewise probably won’t avoid 10 ACC losses unless our freshmen surprise us.

No matter what happens with Reggie’s decision, we’re going to have to watch a lot of freshmen growing into their new roles. Based on what I’ve just shared, yeah, the present for Boston College men’s basketball is bleak. Fear not, however, because I think that with or without Reggie Jackson, the future is bright.