Wake Forest at BC: No excuses

2010-11 Boston College is a basketball team that needs wins to secure a berth in the 2011 NCAA Tournament.  2010-11 Wake Forest is one of the all-time worst ACC teams and an embarrassment to the conference.  This shouldn’t be much of a game, right?  Well, you’d hope not, especially not on Senior Day for eight of our players.

We all know the significance of this game: BC wins and they march onwards; they lose and their tournament resume blows up, much like stepping on a college basketball landmine.  If you don’t believe my assertion that Wake Forest is no better than a MEAC team right now, then please, feast your eyes on their “résumé”:

• 8-22 (1-14) record
• RPI: 263, SOS: 104
• Nine losses in a row; two wins in calendar 2011
• Best win: Virginia (RPI 141)
• Bad (RPI 150+) losses: Six; Georgia Tech (2), Presbyterian, UNC-Wilmington, Winthrop, Stetson
• Road record: 0-9; non-home record: 1-10
• Average scoring margin per game: 67.2 – 76.8 = -9.6 points
• Average scoring margin in ACC games: 61.1 – 79.8 = -18.7 points
• Field goal percentage: 42% (10^th in ACC)
• Field goal percentage defense: 45% (12^th in ACC)
• Turnover margin: -3.43 (12^th in ACC)
• Head coach: Jeff Bzdelik; hasn’t had a good season since Air Force in 2006-07

Now that’s ugly.  This season, they’ve been beyond a complete trainwreck.  Of course, it’s always possible that BC could lose to this team, but should it be excusable?  Abso-friggin-lutely not.  Nobody with any hopes of playing in the NCAA Tournament should lose to them, or even come close.

You had better believe that the NCAA Selection Committee is watching this game, or are at least very curious to see the final score.  Since we are squarely on the bubble, everything we do this close to tournament time will be scrutinized.  They are aware that the Eagles just got a big win over Virginia Tech, who are unfortunately fading fast, and they are also aware of how bad Wake Forest is.  They will have the expectation, therefore, that the Eagles will win this game comfortably, even if they don’t play their best.  (As if you needed a further explanation, they will expect a very similar result on Thursday as well, should the Eagles win today.)  Anything short of that will probably raise doubts within them.  For example, this is a team we’re facing that has been routinely blown out in conference play: what sort of message do you think it will send to the Committee if BC beats them by 4 points at home in a must-win game?  Probably one about inconsistency.  Further, what do you think they’ll think if BC loses?  I know the answer: that BC isn’t anywhere near worthy.

Closeness of the game does matter, for the reasons I just stated, and I submit one more example: I think we all remember the nice season BC had in 2008-2009, Tyrese Rice’s senior year.  The Eagles won their first-round ACC Tournament game over Virginia, which did not in itself clinch an at-large bid (they already had it), nor did their one-point defeat to #9 Duke in the quarterfinals.  I’m fully convinced, though, that that strong effort got BC to a 7-seed in the NCAAs.  We were all expecting something from eight to ten beforehand, and the Eagles jumped up.  In much the same way, how well BC plays in these last few games before Selection Sunday could determine whether or not the Eagles get a seed at all.  The committee is looking for teams that have an adequate resume, but one that is also playing well at the right time (now).  Playing good basketball over the next week can only help.

It is certain that the Eagles would not make the tournament with any losses to Wake Forest, but every point they score is going to matter.  This is the sort of game where BC is going to have to take care of business, and it would be in their best interest to dispose of the Deacs easily in this game and the likely one to come on Thursday in Greensboro.  The Eagles have just beaten Virginia and Virginia Tech by double-digits; it’s time to stretch that to four-straight wins as such going into a prospective quarterfinals game against Clemson.  The Eagles must keep this momentum going or they will fall off the bubble.

Gametime is at noon.