BC at VT: So yeah, this is the big one

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For the Virginia Tech Hokies, this game doesn’t mean quite as much as the one they just played (having beaten Duke and all but securing their spot in the NCAA Tournament), but for the Boston College Eagles, it’s everything. Sure, a loss isn’t what the Hokies need, but this is a desperate, must-win game for the Eagles, and a last chance at a quality win before the ACC Tournament, with any luck. We will be treated to a bubble battle at Cassell Coliseum tonight, upon which the season could be riding for this team.

There is probably no way the Eagles get an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament without beating the Hokies tonight. At 17-11 (7-7) and a game against Wake Forest (or two, if they get them again in Greensboro), their resume isn’t good enough to be able to sustain another loss outside of a later round of the ACC Tournament. The somewhat good news is that BC has already beaten them this year, 58-56, in a game where the Eagles played much better defense than they had in games prior. The bad news is that the Eagles have a poor track record in that building. Arguably, the Eagles should have won last year’s contest in Blacksburg, but fell by one point in a major last-minute choke. In fact, BC has lost four in a row down at Cassell, with their last win coming on Feb. 4, 2006 – by just one point.

Jeff Allen will be an area of serious concern for the Eagles. Allen single-handedly kept the Hokies in it while star player Malcolm Delaney added 19 points of his own. His 25 points and 19 rebounds made for what was far and away the best performance on the court that afternoon. Try this stat out: Allen had more offensive rebounds (8) than the entire BC team did (7). The Eagles are going to have to come up with a way to contain him and Delaney defensively, or to offset their contributions, knowing that if Allen gets close to the hoop, he’s not going to miss (same with rebounding – if he’s close to the ball, he’ll come up with it), and if Delaney is on his game, he will bomb away from behind the arc.

We can’t count on the Hokie bench being useless this time, either. They came up with all of zero points last time, and I find it hard to believe that they will put on a repeat performance at home. Speaking of being at home, it also happens to be Senior Night. The place is going to be hopping and they’ll be very eager to send the guys out with a win and a certain trip to the NCAA Tournament. In short, this will be a very hostile environment for the Eagles.

I wish I could say I felt confident about this game. A month ago, I would have been cautiously optimistic, but now, I’m a lot more reserved. The Hokies have a mixed resume, but ultimately have done more than the Eagles, and even though they’re not an elite team by any stretch, one kind of gets the feeling that BC is heading into a buzzsaw. If so, it will slice right through the Eagles’ NCAA hopes. Had BC won more games that they should have – like, say, Yale or Miami (both) – the season wouldn’t come down to Senior Night on the road against the team that just beat the former #1 in the country. It does, however, and there is no more margin for error.

There is always the chance that BC can pull the upset, but it will take some serious effort. I think we’re past worrying about Reggie Jackson, as his slump is over, but one guy we don’t need starting a new one is Biko Paris. In 33 playing minutes at Virginia on Saturday, he scored no points. He only shot four field goal attempts, three of which were threes, and garnered three rebounds. If BC is to have any shot, he, Jackson, and Joe Trapani will have to play at a high level, while getting contributions from the usual suspects like Corey Raji, Gabe Moton, and even John Cahill.

Gametime is at 9pm on ESPNU. (FYI: BC’s record on ESPNU this year is 4-3, though 1-3 on the road.)