Miami at BC: Lose and in (the NIT)

All there is to the game is this: Boston College must win. Their 16-10 record has them hanging onto an NCAA bid by the tiniest of margins, but the time has come for them to win the big games once again. They most recently fell short against the North Carolina Tar Heels on the road by two, coming within about an inch of Reggie Jackson’s game-winning shot falling. It was quite a comeback in a game where BC got slaughtered on the boards, but still a loss, and a chance for a quality win gone.

Now, the Eagles are back home, playing a Miami team that, by all estimations, they should have beaten in Coral Gables on January 15. BC lost that game by a single point despite a mediocre performance overall, and had a chance to win in the end, but amongst other things, a shooting foul on Miami against Reggie Jackson was not called near the end of regulation, ultimately contributing to the Eagles’ loss.

Not much has changed for either team since the last time they met, but this game has a lot more significance now: Miami is floating belly-up in the ACC, while BC is desperately seeking wins. The Hurricanes have lost two of their last three but won their last two road games – which, in the interests of full disclosure, were against appallingly-bad Wake Forest and also-ran UNC-Greensboro, a team with a 300+ RPI that started the season 0-15 (and still somehow aren’t the worst team in their conference).

Miami is 3-6 on the road this season – their only other road win was Florida Gulf Coast. Put more succinctly, the ‘Canes haven’t won a road game all year against a team with an RPI above 250. BC had better not attempt to become the first, as their season depends upon it. Further, to stack the deck against them even more, BC is 11-4 all-time against the Hurricanes at home and has an 11-3 record at Conte Forum this year. One thing I should mention, however, is that Miami was relatively close in most of those road games that they lost.

In January, the Eagles were alright in containing Miami big-man Reggie Johnson, holding him to nine points and nine rebounds (though six were offensive), but gave up 19 to Durand Scott, who hit 7 of his 15 shots to lead the Hurricanes. BC will have to continue the kind of strong defensive effort they put out in North Carolina in slowing the Heels down and largely neutralizing the offensive threat that their size posed. It will be interesting to see how Steve Donahue alters the Eagles’ gameplan from last time against Miami, because the problem seemed to be ugly turnovers and failing to play defense (remember that very deep 3 at the 1st-half buzzer?)

I figured the Eagles would be favored in this game, and they are: -3 to be exact. Of course, it won’t be on TV, but it starts at 7pm.