BC’s position in the ACC’s bubble trouble
By Joe Micik
In yesterday’s article, I took the current records and remaining schedules in an attempt to figure out what the final ACC seedings would be. Today, we’re going to take each team’s body of work as of today and determine which of the ACC bubble teams is in the best position, without any of my predictions from yesterday.
I have my own views on how this exceptionally weak bubble stacks up for the Eagles, and yesterday I asked some college basketball fans on Twitter to weigh in. We seem to all be pretty much on the same page with regards to which of the five ACC bubble teams – BC, Clemson, FSU, Maryland, and VT – has the best and worst chances of making the dance. They are, in order of likelihood:
1. Florida State, most likely to qualify. (Fans’ ranking: #1).
Rationale: They’re knocking at the door of 20 wins and have a solid 9-3 record in the conference. Their RPI is fine (50) but their strength of schedule is not (102). FSU also has 6 wins against the RPI Top 100 and two against the Top 50. They’re the best of a weak bunch.
What they need to do to make the NCAA Tournament: Not collapse. Even if they only win two more games between here and the end of the ACC Tournament, they should probably make it.
2. Boston College. (Fans’ ranking: #2).
Rationale: Though things have been so-so lately for the Eagles, they still boast the best RPI (45) and SOS (19) of any of the ACC bubble teams. BC has seven wins against the Top 100 and one against the Top 50. They also have one loss below the Top 150.
What they need to do to make the NCAA Tournament: Win at least four games between now and the end of the ACC Tournament, with no bad losses and no embarrassing performances. Tough, but doable considering the schedule and likely ACC Tournament draw.
3. Virginia Tech. (Fans’ ranking: #4).
Rationale: Their 7-5 record is the second-best in the conference’s bubble, but the Hokies have a few things going against them, most notably their SOS (96) and three bad losses. Virginia Tech, like Boston College, has seven Top 100 wins and one in the Top 50. Their last three games of the regular season will be difficult (Duke, BC, at Clemson).
What they need to do to make the NCAA Tournament: Probably much the same as BC in winning at least four games to try to boost their RPI. The Duke-BC homestand will probably be the Hokies’ season, one way or another.
4. Clemson. (Fans’ ranking: #3).
Rationale: Virginia Tech and Clemson are the only differences I had with the fans, and Clemson nosed out Virginia Tech by only a single point. Clemson is in this position because of their unattractive RPI (66) and SOS (82), and their two bad losses to South Carolina and Virginia. They have two Top 50 wins and seven Top 100 wins.
What they need to do to make the NCAA Tournament: They may need to win out in the regular season, or at least take two out of three, and win some games in Greensboro. If they were to win out – meaning, beat Duke and VT in consecutive games to close the regular season – and perhaps even win a game in the ACC Tournament, I have to think they’d be in, but it’s going to be a difficult task. They’re still alive, however.
5. Maryland, least likely to qualify. (Fans’ ranking: #5).
Rationale: Not much seems to be going the Terps’ way this year, as they have no wins (and eight losses) against the Top 50 and only four wins against the Top 100. Their RPI (84) and SOS (81) are not likely to impress the committee. To their credit, they have no bad losses, but have four losses to fellow bubble teams BC and VT.
What they need to do to make the NCAA Tournament: Win out in the regular season and win at least one, if not two games in the ACC Tournament. They are nearly in “must win the ACC Tournament” country.