Who’s going to get those ACC Tournament byes, anyway?

The headline is part one of the question; part two is “does BC need the bye?”  I’ll explain shortly.  Tomorrow’s article will be an extension of today’s, ranking the ACC bubble teams and showing where BC stands amongst them, in addition to what each must do in order to secure themselves an NCAA Tournament bid.

As of this very moment, here are the ACC standings (top 4 columns bolded to indicate byes):

You can draw an imaginary dividing line in between 7 and 8 as well, since it seems like there is a big enough gap in record and overall performance that no team above it will fall below, and no team below will rise above.  Duke and North Carolina have secured their spots in the NCAA Tournament, while teams 8 through 12 are done.  For the next two days, we will look at that “ACC bubble,” teams 3 through 7.

Right now, we will consider who will get the final two byes in the ACC Tournament.  With a record of 9-3 and only four games to go, I think we can safely lock Florida State into one of them, which leaves one left and as many as four teams in contention.  Clemson has three games remaining while the others have four; here are their closing schedules.

Three of the four teams get almost automatic wins against Wake Forest (though there is a chance the Deacs will win again this year; I just wouldn’t want to be the team that blows the season against them).  The Eagles also have a tough road game against Virginia Tech, and iffy but winnable games against Miami and Virginia.  Virginia Tech would appear to have the most difficult schedule outside of the Wake Forest game, playing Duke, BC, and Clemson to end the regular season.  Maryland must play Florida State and North Carolina before finishing with the aforementioned iffy-but-winnable Miami and UVA (though Virginia is a home game for the Terps).  Finally, Clemson gets Wake, but their last two in Duke and Virginia Tech will be tough.

The Hokies might have the toughest schedule, but they also have the best record.  That regular-season finale against the Tigers could determine who doesn’t have to play until the quarterfinals.  It looks like the next most difficult schedule belongs to Maryland, with Clemson as the third-hardest and Boston College as the least difficult.

My guesses for final ACC records would be as follows: BC 9-7, VT 9-7, Clemson 9-7, and Maryland 8-8.  Now it comes down to breaking that tie: in my predictions, Clemson will have beaten both BC and VT, which instantly gives the #4 seed and a bye to them.  You’d have to go down the tiebreaker list a little bit to learn, then, that Virginia Tech would become the #5 and BC the #6 in that scenario.

Alright, so Clemson gets the bye and BC apparently ends up drawing Georgia Tech in the first round.  Is this the end of the world?  Certainly not.  For one thing, if BC doesn’t get the bye, they have an extra game added onto their schedule against one of those two teams on the bottom of the ACC, both of which have had a ghastly season.  It would be an opportunity for the Eagles to gain another victory before heading into their quarterfinal game against, in this scenario, Florida State.  It is also an opportunity to pull a colossal choke and clinch an NIT bid right there.

Winning out and getting the ACC Tournament bye would look pretty good from where we stand, and that’s certainly the outcome we want, but at the same time, the chance for an extra win (to bring us to 20 or even 21 wins if BC wins out but can’t get the bye) would also be acceptable, if not preferable to some.

Tomorrow, taking nothing but the schedules into account, we’ll move beyond the ACC picture and into the national picture, seeing which of these teams is still faring the best for the tournament.