BC at North Carolina: Nowhere to go but up

At least, that’s what I’m telling myself after the Eagles’ embarrassing 106-74 defeat to North Carolina on February 1.

The #19 Tar Heels have only lost twice in 2011 so far: once to Duke, and the other time was an inexplicable 20-point defeat to Georgia Tech in Atlanta. At the Dean Dome, they’ve had a pretty smooth ride of things this season: their only loss was to Texas, then ranked #25, now ranked #2. UNC comes into this game having won seven out of their last eight, and they’re comfortably in the 2nd position in the ACC with a 9-2 record.

You could argue, however, that they haven’t been rolling along quite as well as they were at the first time they caught BC: following their loss at Duke (in which they blew a 16-point lead), they survived a tough challenge from Clemson on the road, followed by a decently-sized win over Wake Forest, yet the Heels only shot 37% in that game (while going a dismal 5-27 from three).

Boston College, on the other hand, has been somewhat up and down, but lately have stabilized themselves to some degree. The Eagles are 2-1 since being demolished by UNC three weeks ago, beating Maryland and Virginia Tech at home while dropping a game to Clemson. Their play has been far from crisp, but BC did just enough to win in those two games. The re-emergence of Reggie Jackson after a mid-season slump powered the Eagles past Maryland most recently, as he scored a career-high 31 points.

Now they take their talents to Chapel Hill where, as you may recall, they won their last game. In fact, the Eagles have a 2-1 all-time record at the Dean Dome, which is apropos of nothing and a small sample size as well, but it’s still an interesting fact.

So, let’s get right to the heart of the matter: BC could lose by 30+ points again to this team, but I really do doubt it. For one thing, Reggie Jackson was deeply mired in his slump on February 1, scoring only six points in the first meeting with UNC. If he shows up to play today, I think that by itself will make the game a lot more competitive. Furthermore, the Eagles were unmistakably cold, having previously lost consecutive games on the road by double-digits. Some other key things BC will need to do in order to keep themselves in the game include cutting down on the turnovers (they had 16 in the first game), generating ANY defense at all (UNC shot 57%), and making your open looks (BC shot 35%, despite getting their fair share of clean looks at the hoop). Basically, BC has room to improve upon everything from last time.

Winning this game will be difficult, and indeed, we are big underdogs (+12), but if nothing else, that spread can be covered. I don’t mean to go on and on about how great our NCAA bubble team is, but I am certain that BC is a better team than the one that showed up against North Carolina the first time. Even if they do lose, if they can play well and restore some pride, then the loss can be absorbed (though it would make winning the remaining games all the more important).

It’s at 4pm on ESPN; be there.