Maryland at BC: A must-win

The title says it all: this afternoon’s basketball game is a must-win for Boston College, and probably also for Maryland. We’re in better shape than the Terps, as they only have three Top 100 wins, but Mr. Bracketology himself has just moved us to the “Last Four In” column. In layman’s terms, if BC doesn’t start winning games now, we’re screwed.

The formula for getting into the NCAA Tournament involves taking care of business at home. There are three of those games remaining – Maryland, Miami, and Wake Forest – and all are winnable. This will probably also require at least one road win and a win in Greensboro in March, but it all starts at Conte Forum today.

At the start of the ACC schedule, the Eagles went into College Park and stunned the Terps by 4. That was then, and this is now, however. Lately, Maryland has done nearly the opposite of BC: they’ve won five of their last six while the Eagles have lost four of their last six. In this stretch, Maryland was able to take a home win over Clemson a few weeks ago, but got slapped around by Duke and have otherwise feasted on the lower echelons of the ACC.

On paper, Maryland looks like they should be very good: they are in the top 25 in the nation in points per game and field goal percentage, while being in the top 10 in rebounds and assists per game. So why are they not a tourney team? As I alluded to at the top, they sport a 3-8 record against the RPI Top 100 and their best win – by far – was Clemson. What has also really killed them is their 0-7 record against the RPI Top 50; they’ve played good teams, but they haven’t beaten them. Nevertheless, had they not played five ranked teams, their strength of schedule would not be in the 80s as it is now.

So, what does this all mean for today’s game? For starters, I remember last year’s BC/Maryland game at Conte Forum, because I was there, and I am quite aware of the fact that the Eagles got creamed. Furthermore, I’m sure Maryland is very mindful of what happened the last time these two teams hooked up and are ready to even the score. The Terps are playing better right now than BC and undoubtedly have some forward momentum going into this game. Barring a miracle run, it might be over for Maryland, anyway, but that won’t stop them from trying to deal BC a lethal blow. They have the size and talent to make BC’s day very unpleasant, and will probably beat BC on the boards again, but one thing to remember about how BC won that last game in College Park is the three-pointer. The Eagles made 13 of them last time, but the Terps have established themselves as the team with the second-lowest percentage of threes allowed in the ACC. In fact, it’s the same for field goals allowed by Maryland’s defense (while BC is dead last). It will take more than lightning striking twice for BC to get by the Terps for a second time.

This should end up being a close game, but as for how it turns out, I’m not sure. I honestly think this one could go either way, and neither outcome would surprise me. What I do know is that for BC, the stakes are very high now, and a loss could doom their season. Either the Eagles will keep on chugging or they’ll find their Waterloo. We will need a solid effort from the Eagles and those gold seats behind the baskets to be filled.

This is an ACC Network/ESPN3 game for 1pm. See you folks there.