Eagles resume update: Controlling their own destiny

Despite a disappointing (but not at all unexpected) 5th-consecutive loss to Clemson in their building, Boston College’s 15-9 (5-5) mark might still have them in the NCAA Tournament picture. Look, we all know that BC has some serious flaws (most notably defense) and they’d stand to do basically nothing in the dance aside from maybe a first-round upset, which would be the best-case scenario, but we all want to see this team go as far as they can. As of right now, in spite of all of the facepalm-worthy play we’ve seen, yes, they’re STILL probably a tournament team right now, although they are falling towards the borderline.

In the words of Joe Lunardi last night following the loss:

Joe Lunardi Next major “bubble game” underway is B.C. at Clemson. Don’t think the Eagles fall out with a loss, but it’d be pretty close.

We’re regressing, no doubt, but all has not been lost. I say that because I updated BC’s Resume Tracker today — if you haven’t checked it out, please do, as it’s all up-to-date — and even after the Clemson defeat, our RPI and SOS factors are largely unchanged. In fact, our strength of schedule went up. One conclusion I think we can make is that by playing Maryland, VT, and UNC again, even with UVA and the black hole that is Wake Forest coming up, the Eagles will most likely finish the season with a strength of schedule in the Top 30. Further, the RPI probably won’t be too far different from what it is now, unless the Eagles should either pull off some miracle wins or stunning defeats to the lesser teams remaining on their schedule. Those numbers shouldn’t be overlooked, because the Selection Committee takes all of that into consideration, and right now, it’s working in our favor and will probably continue to do so.

In short, the Eagles have their fate in their own hands. If they can find a way to win at least four more games and play somewhat respectable basketball for the remainder of the regular season and in Greensboro, they might find themselves as a double-digit seed in some pod far away from Boston. This begins with the Maryland game on Saturday: if BC wins, and protects their home court for the rest of the season, then they can keep marching on. If they can’t beat Maryland on Saturday, then their season outlook becomes bleak to the point where they will probably not be in the NCAA Tournament. I try to shy away from using this term, but Saturday is a must-win for Boston College in much the same way as Boston College was a must-win for Clemson last night.

The Eagles’ resume cannot take much more of a pounding than it already has. Winning their last three home games and finding a way to steal a road win (preferably more, but I can’t expect it) might give them enough to ride it out beyond Selection Sunday. I think we’ll be sweating it out that evening, but for right now, we’ve got a month to go, and BC still controls their destiny. Win games and you’re probably in, lose games and you’re hosting three-quarters-empty NIT games at Conte. I prefer the former.