2009 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region: (10) USC vs. (7) BC

Teams
Boston College: ACC at-large
Southern California: Pac-10 champion

Last Tournament
BC: 2007, 7 seed; lost to (2) Georgetown in Round of 32
USC: 2008, 6 seed; lost to (11) Kansas State in Round of 64

This is a trendy upset pick for many because of how “hot” the Trojans are at present. Boston College, after all, has been inconsistent. BC is hated by everyone from sportswriters to number-crunchers to the Vegas bookies. The media has nothing but good things to say about USC.

We need to keep some perspective here. Boston College has been inconsistent, but have beaten some very tough opponents over the course of the season and accrued a winning record for the third year out of four in the ACC. The Trojans at this time last week were probably in the NIT.

I propose to you that BC does, as their seeding suggests, have a good chance of winning. First, I find that this “they got hot and won their conference tournament” thing doesn’t always pan out in the big dance. In the cases of a bunch of these teams that unexpectedly win their conference tournaments (ex: Georgia 2008; Syracuse 2006), they flame out quickly in the NCAAs. A mediocre team is still a mediocre team. Next, both of these teams will have had about a week off as well. This is a variable that can positively or negatively impact either team, and while BC doesn’t tend to show up with that much time off, they are doubtlessly eager to wash the taste of the Duke game out of their mouths. We won’t know until Friday is USC is still riding their high. No team stays hot forever.

Furthermore, USC (until very recently) had a woeful record in away/neutral games. The “neutral court” games they won last week in the Pac-10 Tournament were only about 2 or 3 miles away from their campus. BC beat the crap out of UNC in the Dean Dome and knocked out tournament team Maryland on their home court. The Trojans do not have wins like that to boast – in fact, they have no major road wins at all to boast. BC is 7-7 in games played outside Boston; USC is 2-9 in games played outside LA. The Trojans are not the same team outside of So-cal.

USC’s defense may present problems for BC. The Eagles have issues with presses (as well as elementary inbounds plays, but that’s for another discussion). Boston College, however, has a more potent offense and they run the flex pretty well.

Neither team is amazing but both teams have athleticism. Both could beat Michigan State on the right day, and both are beatable. The fawning over USC is becoming tiresome as is the dumping on BC. The Trojans are not as good as they’re being made out to be, and the Eagles are not as bad. It will be a close contest, but if the good BC shows up, the Eagles will win.