Boston College at Florida State: Bottom Line & Pick

Greg M. Cooper-US PRESSWIRE

There’s a good chance this football game down in Tallahassee tomorrow won’t be pretty. In light of Florida State assuming mortality, it looks prettier than it otherwise would have been. It’ll be a tough article for Eagles fans to swallow, but nevertheless, we must proceed. The good news is that BC hockey plays at 7, so in the event that this does not go well, Jerry York has your back.

How Boston College Will Win

To claim a major upset victory, Boston College has to play a perfect game, which is to say far better than they have played in any game so far. Florida State, bummed out as they are about last week, might show some serious resolve. Then again, they might not, but what we do know is that a team as talented as FSU is not going to give BC a lot of chances. Boston College will have to take advantage of every single one. What’s more is that the defense has to play much, much better than previously. If they do that, they will give themselves a chance.

How Florida State Will Win

Florida State will win if Boston College plays anything less than perfect, or the Seminoles decide not to sleepwalk through the game. If the BC defense does not show any notable improvement, FSU will go off to the races. Fairly simple.

Bottom Line

As much as it hurts a BC alum to say it, Florida State has superior talent and superior coaching (though their talent sometimes underachieves and I don’t think Jimbo Fisher is that great of a coach). They are 28-point favorites for a reason. The Eagles have been competitive in their FBS games, but have not actually won any of them. There are reasons for that, too.

Chris Pantale returns for the Eagles, which might be a boost. The offense is not the problem, however: it’s that the defense will probably get sauteed like bacon-wrapped scallops. There is shockingly little keeping the Seminoles from gaining at least 500 yards, if not more. It might take Florida State some time to get into the game, but if they do, their best is much better than BC’s best. This looks pretty bleak.

STG Outlook: Boston College at Florida State

• Score estimate: FSU by 28
• Mild to moderate confidence in FSU covering spread (-28)
• Low probability of a low-scoring game; at least one team will score 30+
• Low probability of a high-scoring game on the part of both teams

Additional Notes

• Boston College’s last win over FSU in 2009 (28-21 at Alumni Stadium)
• Boston College’s last win over FSU on the road in 2008 (27-17); BC’s last victory to date over a ranked team
• Boston College has lost eight games in a row against ranked teams