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Boston College at Army: Bottom Line & Pick

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BC Army Football 2012

There seem to be many Boston College fans from the tri-state area who are set to converge on Michie Stadium for this weekend’s game at Army. Will the maroon and gold-clad folk go home happy?

This week, we’ll try something a little different as far as final analysis goes. Rather than a large block of text, how about several smaller ones?

How Boston College Will Win

The Eagles probably do not need their best effort to win; a C+ performance like most of the first four games will probably be good enough, though it would not be a great sign for the future. Army’s defense is poor, so Chase Rettig and Alex Amidon need to play catch as they have been doing recently. The BC defense will stay on the field for a while as Army plays a ball control offense, so when the Eagles have possession, they will need to make the most of their chances. There might be no saving this defense, but an offensive effort like the one against Clemson should be more than adequate. If the bad version of the Army offense shows up, this game could be remarkably easy.

How Army Will Win

There is only one kind of game Army will win with BC, and it’s a shootout. The Black Knights have an inconsistent offense, but it can score 30 just as easily as it can score 3. We don’t know which one will show, but if you mix a productive Army triple-option run game and a porous BC defense, particularly one that is poor against the run, and you probably have a slugfest. To win, Army would need to hold the ball and be able to keep up with the Eagles offense, who will likely score a respectable number of points. If the run defense is especially bad, the Eagles could have a ballgame on their hands. Despite all of Army’s negatives, this is not entirely impossible.

Bottom Line

The Black Knights are at a significant disadvantage when BC’s offense is on the field. Army’s defensive line is small and will probably get tossed around. Save for breathtaking incompetence or inability to execute, Boston College will probably score freely. Given how poor BC’s defense has been, Army at least has a shot at scoring some points and making this a slugfest, but they would need to match the Eagles blow-for-blow, and that might be too much for them to handle. If Army’s offense doesn’t show, their defense will not be able to keep them in the game.

Win here and move on to what will probably be an ugly game in Tallahassee. Find a way to lose and things get extremely bleak.

STG Outlook: Boston College at Army

• STG margin estimate: BC by 16
• Moderately high likelihood of BC win
• BC covering spread (-10) is a probable outcome
• Some possibility of a high-scoring game
• Low probability of a low-scoring game; very likely at least one team scores 30+

Additional notes

• BC has won five games in a row against Army and 14 of 15; Eagles last defeated in 1995
• Army: 1-14 since 2009 when trailing at the half
• BC: 0-3 when trailing at the half this season (all halftime deficits 3 points or less)
• BC: 1-9 since 2011 when tied or trailing at the half

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Tags: Army Black Knights Boston College Eagles Football Picks

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