Boston College at Clemson: CU offense vs. BC defense

If this article was called “Clemson offense vs. BC offense,” it would illustrate one of the biggest mismatches of which I could currently conceive in college football. It is, however, Clemson’s offense against BC’s defense. The latter unit had been a strength in recent seasons, particularly in recent Clemson games. In the 2009 offensive disaster at Death Valley, BC’s defense kept them in the game (even though the offense didn’t take advantage). Last year, at home, one could argue that the defense was a defining factor in their win, holding Clemson to only 10 points and letting the terrible offense squeak by. This year, however, I’m not sure the same optimism is fully warranted.

Tajh Boyd’s Tiger offense is off to a good start, and considering who they’ve played, that’s not a small achievement. In terms of total offense, Clemson currently ranks 20th in FBS with 466.8 yards per game. As for scoring offense, they come in 33rd with 34.8 points per game. When it comes to ACC ranks, the Tigers are second and second, respectively (on both accounts, only the resurgent Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are better).

It’s hard to argue that Boyd himself isn’t also having a good season individually. Of FBS quarterbacks, he is currently 16th in passing yards per game with 291.8. (For what it’s worth, last week’s opponent, Tanner Price, is only a few spots below on the list.) He has already thrown 14 touchdown passes, and of all FBS players, he is responsible for an average of 20 points per game, which is 11th best in college football. He’s not making huge mistakes, either: Boyd only has two interceptions on the season and is completing 61% of his passes.

Clemson’s running game has gotten things done as well. As a team, they’ve gotten just under 900 yards on the ground so far, averaging out to nearly 174 yards per game. They’ve run it more than they’ve passed it, but both phases of the offense seem to be doing well. Leading the charge at running back for the Tigers is Andre Ellington, who is averaging 82 yards per game.

The Tigers offense is adept at the big play. In just five games, they’ve successfully executed twenty passing plays of 20 yards or more, and have had rushing gains of 20 yards or more seven times.

What’s also intriguing about the Clemson offense is that their scoring distribution has been very consistent. They’ve scored nearly the same amount of points in every quarter this season, so that would suggest they don’t take any quarters off or get off to fast or slow starts. This offense seems to work at one speed, and that’s hard on the opposition.

Speaking of their opposition, Boston College’s defense has been suffering so far in 2011. The days of being #1 in the nation in rush defense, though only last season, seem very far away. This season, the Eagles are 67th in that department, having allowed 153 yards per game on the ground. You can safely attribute that to a defensive line that has not done much of anything at all yet.

Passing defense isn’t too much better, either, and the BC secondary is paper-thin. In defensive pass efficiency, Boston College is 68th, allowing an opposing passer rating of 130.39. (For purposes of comparison, Chase Rettig’s passer rating is 109.39. What’s interesing is that they’ve allowed only three passing touchdowns so far this season, but the other team’s scores have to have come from somewhere, and that somewhere is on the ground. BC’s opponents had ten rushing touchdowns in the first five games.

The Eagles defensive scoring distribution is not smooth and consistent like Clemson’s; they have gotten hammered in the second and fourth quarters. They hold opponents down relatively well in the first and third quarters, but part of the reason they’re losing all these games is because they’re getting beat right before the half and right at the end of the game.

The Boston College defense is a group of players with some individual above-average talent (in the case of a guy like Luke Kuechly, well above average, and believe me, he’s one of the only ones) who are performing at or below average. This unit used to be a strength for the Eagles, but even now, they’re starting to look like less of a dominant force. To a degree, I can’t even blame them, because the BC offense’s time of possession is only 71st in FBS at 29:21. There are games when they’re out there for quite a while, but still, they had the same predicament last year and they played much better than this.

Clemson is another one of those teams that can shred up a weak pass defense. That certainly sums up BC, who have no discernable defensive line, a thin secondary, and no pass rush (still), and don’t appear to be getting any better. Clemson definitely has the advantage in this matchup; expect the Tigers to follow the same game plan that many other teams have, which is going to the air to get sure yardage, and expect Boyd to complete about 70% of his passes.